Tuesday, August 16, 2016

Trumps creative destruction

      As a Republican I'm embarrassed and a little worried by the Trump candidacy. As an American I'm worried over the Clinton candidacy. Vote for Hillary, and ill be relieved of my embarrassment. Of course, there's still that worry factor.
      My friends on the left are not enamored with Mrs. Clinton either. I suppose, when it comes right down to it most will vote for her rather than risk four years (or more) of Donald Trump, whatever their feelings about her personally. They rightly see her as representing the unholy alliance between big business and big money, and political power brokers. Crony-Capitalism has been around longer than we've had a name for it. Madison sought to keep it in check by distributing power widely throughout government, and encouraging competition between power interests. Jefferson imagined a nation of small farmers happily handing over decision making power to larger farmers ,who would choose from amongst themselves the wisest and most virtuous to lead and govern forever more. It turns out that nothing they could do or say or pass through Congress could prevent us from going our way. Our way is to throw money at the powerful, and power to those who can spend it freely.
     Two hundred and thirty or so years later we still honor Madison's Constitution ,study it, swear our allegiance to it on occasion, but are always ready to put it aside whenever it gets in the way. 
      During the Nixon administration Arthur Schlesinger Jr. referred to the " imperial presidency" . He was concerned over Nixon's overreach, and the implications of the trend if it would continue through future administrations. He was right, of , but it's interesting that it took the presidency of this Republican, long detested by the left ,to awaken in this old New Dealer a healthy fear of supraconstitutional authority run amuck. As far as overreach goes, Nixon was not particularly unique among modern presidents. As far as Republicans go he was not particularly conservative. Nixon brought us the EPA, affirmative action, and much else that conservatives often rant about. It's worth noting that presidents are rarely the game changers we hope them to be. They must be pragmatists. They have to deal with Congress ,which controls the budget. Some trends are bigger than the office.
       This is what keeps me up at night. All the trends are against us. The arc of history is taking us in the exact wrong direction. We could benefit greatly from smarter ,smaller government but there is no indication that we are headed that way anytime soon. Our national dept is about to reach twenty trillion unaffordable dollars . The Federal reserve is unable to increase interest rates yet again because economic growth refuses to budge from its virtual nonexistence. Millions of Americans are unemployed. Millions more are underemployed. The number of food stamp enrollees has doubled since the Great recession. Meanwhile, Congress continues to hand off its law making responsibility to the agencies it has created and funds, the same agencies that add annually millions of pages of new regulations to justify their own existence while effectively stifling business growth and limiting competition.
        What will Hillary Clinton do about these trends? What would Donald Trump do? Neither appear willing to turn back power to the States, or to Congress, or dismantling the undemocratic regulatory state. Trump sees no limit to presidential power, at least not if he's the guy running things. In a strange way that is my only small ray of hope in this election. If America elects Trump it's true I will feel embarrassed, but my consolation is that he will be  true to his own personality and reach too far ,step on too many toes, fall head first into a big steaming pile of his own hubris, and promptly find himself turned out of office. I realize all that drama could get messy furthering my already considerable embarrassment, but consider the upside. At long last Republicans and Democrats will come togeather, first to get rid of the Donald, then to reach lasting reforms to prevent future presidents from exercising more authority than the Republic can handle. This would set back an eighty odd year trajectory of centralizing and consolidating executive power.
        Who knows what could come next? With reform all the rage in Washington we may even do something about that national debt. We may get serious about downsizing government, reducing wasteful regulations, eliminating wasteful programs, and allowing for real economic growth again. A really awful Trump presidency may be providentialy short . It may lead to the reversal of destructive trends. A really awful Hillary presidency will look a lot like the last eighty years and will only get us in all the deeper. So I'm hoping for Trump to win. I'm hoping he's just as bad as he looks. What is it they call this in economic theory, creative destruction? That's where I see hope. Kind of sad, isn't it?

1 comment:

  1. Another reasonable, well-reasoned analysis of our present muddled state of affairs. You almost give hope.

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